A note about data scale:
Scale is an important factor in data usage. Certain scale datasets are not suitable for some project, analysis, or modeling purposes. Please be sure you are using the best available data.
1:24000 scale datasets are recommended for projects that are at the county level. 1:24000 data should NOT be used for high accuracy base mapping such as property parcel boundaries. 1:100000 scale datasets are recommended for projects that are at the multi-county or regional level. 1:125000 scale datasets are recommended for projects that are at the regional or state level or larger.
Vector datasets with no defined scale or accuracy should be considered suspect. Make sure you are familiar with your data before using it for projects or analysis. Every effort has been made to supply the user with data documentation. For additional information, see the References section and the Data Source Contact section of this documentation. For more information regarding scale and accuracy, see our webpage at: <http://geoplan.ufl.edu/education.html>
Florida 2060: Florida Population and Developed Land Projected to Double Over Next 50 Years <http://www.1000friendsofflorida.org/planning/2060.asp>
A Time for Leadership: Growth Management and Florida 2060 <http://www.1000friendsofflorida.org/PUBS/2060/A-Time-for-Leadership-Report-Final.pdf>
This population distribution scenario was created using the Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy (LUCIS). Through proximity and advanced statistical analysis of GIS datasets, LUCIS identifies lands that are appropriate for future development, conservation, and agricultural production. The GIS datasets used during analysis originate from various sources. GeoPlan and the creators of this dataset relied upon the various input dataset originator's completeness and accuracy.
Generation of the Florida 2060 population distribution scenario was based on a series of key assumptions. These assumptions are as follows: 1. The Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) moderate population projection from 2005 to 2030 was used as the basis for determining a trend line extending to 2060. At the time this study was undertaken, BEBR's projections existed in five year increments up to 2030. BEBR's middle population projection was used in the following way: The average annual population change between 2000 and 2030 was calculated. For each five year increment following 2030, projected population was calculated by adding five times the average annual population increase to each preceding projected population. For example, the BEBR middle range 2030 population for Alachua County was 320,506. The average annual change population increase between 2000 and 2030 was calculated to be 3,418. Therefore the 2035 Alachua County population was projected to be: (5 [years] x 3,418 [average annual increase]) + 320,506 = 337,596 For the period 2005-2060 the regional starting population was determined to be 17,872,295 and the ending regional population was determined to be 35,814,574.
2. It was assumed the existing gross urban density of developed lands in each county will remain the same as in 2005. Gross urban density was calculated by taking 2005 population and dividing it by 2005 existing urban lands resulting in an expression of people per urban acre for each county. The 2005 gross urban densities ranged from a high in Dade County of 15.45 people per acre to a low in Gilchrist County of 0.45 people per acre. The total acres required to accommodate each county's additional population was determined based on the calculated 2005 gross urban density.
Appendix 2 of the "Florida 2060: A population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida" contains a table of the calculated 2005 gross urban densities by county.
3. The lands to which the new population was distributed were determined to be the most suitable using a set of eight criteria of which proximity to existing urban areas, road density, and absence of wetlands were most heavily weighted.
4. Existing urban lands were defined as all lands that support existing urban uses. These include but are not limited to residential, office/commercial, retail, industrial, roads, urban parks, utilities and utility corridors, golf courses, cemeteries and airports. Vacant platted residential properties were also included in existing urban lands for the counties and partial counties with tax parcel data. The rationale for this assumption was: As new residential areas are developed in counties with vacant residential parcels, there will continue to be a backlog of vacant residential parcels always equal in area to the sum of existing vacant residential parcels.
5. Existing conservation lands were defined as all lands with a measure of permanent protection (both fee simple and less than fee simple). These included areas under federal and state ownership managed by public agencies including the National Park Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service, USDA Forest Service and US Department of Defense. They also included lands managed by state agencies including the Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Forestry, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and the water management districts. A few private preserves owned and managed by non-governmental organizations were included as were lands with conservation easements held by public agencies and non-governmental organizations. The recently approved Babcock Ranch acquisition was included in the mask because of its size and its strategic location in Charlotte and Lee Counties.
6. Open water was defined as areas of the state that are covered by surface waters the majority of the time. These include lakes greater than 10 acres, rivers, streams, canals and major wetland systems.
7. An urban development mask was created so that only lands suitable for future urban development could be considered. Existing urban lands, existing conservation lands and open water were excluded. The Miccosukee Indian Reservation lands in western Broward County were also excluded from consideration for future urban development, because future land use on the reservation is the decision of the tribal leaders and it would be in appropriate to assume that future urban development will be allowed on those lands.
8. The projected populations for three different target dates, 2020, 2040, and 2060, were distributed. To accomplish this, the acres needed to accommodate the new projected population were calculated for each county based on its existing gross urban density. Population was allocated to the most suitable lands equal in area to the acres needed to accommodate the projected population. Once the new 2020 population was distributed, the results were fed back into the determination of urban suitability for 2040, and subsequently the 2040 population distribution was fed back into the determination of urban suitability for 2060.
9. Weights were assigned to each criterion used to determine overall urban development suitability. Appendix 3 of the "Florida 2060: A Population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida" displays the rationale for each criterion and those weights. The weights were chosen based on the degree to which each criterion was assumed to contribute to the suitability of any given cell for future urban use.
10. The mapping units used for the 2020 target date were each of Floridas 67 counties. In 2040, however, a number of counties in the central Florida region did not have sufficient land to accommodate the projected population at the assumed development density. So, to allocate the 2040 population for those counties, it was assumed the additional population would spill over into adjacent counties. This happened to such a degree in central Florida that it was necessary to cluster fourteen counties together for the 2040 population distribution. In 2060, these same fourteen counties remained clustered and two more regional clusters proved necessary, one in south Florida and one in northeast Florida.
In 2040 and 2060 for the clustered counties, population was allocated by first calculating the additional acreage needed to accommodate the new population for the target date for each county. Then the acreage needed for all counties in each cluster was totaled and the population was distributed beginning with the lands most suitable for urban development in the regional cluster until the total regional acreage needed was reached. For the counties that remained unclustered, the new population was allocated county by county as for all counties in 2020.
This dataset was developed using numerous inputs including, but not limited to, existing conservation areas, major roads, and parcels. A list of these inputs and their sources can be found in Appendix 4 of "Florida 2060: A Population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida".
For the each scenario, GeoPlan performed the following aspects: (1) The population was determined using BEBR medium population projections.
(2) A 2020 Urban Suitability Map was developed using a set of established goals and objectives for each stakeholder (i.e. agriculture, conservation, and urban) that defined what was to be accomplished (goal) and define how each accomplishment is to be achieved (supporting objectives). The goals and objectives capture the evaluation criteria, which are evaluated using suitability models where shapefile and raster inputs represent land use characteristics (For more detailed information on suitability modeling please refer to "Smart Land Use Analysis" by Margaret H. Carr and Paul D. Zwick.). The objectives were combined to create a single raster for that goal. The goals were then combined to create a single raster for the entire stakeholder.
(3) Areas determined to be unsuitable for urban development were masked out of the raster for each stakeholder.
(4) New population (2020-2005) was allocated beginning with areas of highest urban suitability and ending with areas of lowest urban suitability, based on 2005 urban density in people/acre.
(5) Using results of 2020 population allocation, create 2040 Urban Suitability Surface and repeat all steps. Repeat again for 2060.
(6) Individual grids for 2020, 2040, and 2060 population allocations were mosaiced and the raster FL2060GROWTH was created.
Questions concerning the projected populations and densities should be directed to Paul Zwick of the GeoPlan Center (pdzwick@ufl.edu)